Latest Entries »

Stop fighting each other!!!!

 

Jennifer Lawrence, who came out in 2015 and said that if Trump became President it would be the “end of the world” has finally come out and said our  politically polarized country needs to come together because “we can’t continue this divide and anger.”

“There needs to be a bridge,” she told in an interview with Vogue Magazine. “There are issues affecting us as human beings, not as liberals and not as Republicans. We have to protect the foundation of this country, and acceptance.”

The violent events of the White Supremacist rally in Charlottesville, Virginia, illustrated men brandishing torches to Nazi insignia and camouflage-clad heavily-armed men who looked like soldiers ready for the battlefield. The men appearing to be soldiers were members of armed militia organizations, who say they went to Charlottesville to provide order at the protest. The hatred building up on both sides is escalating out of control. The White Supremacist who drove a car into a crowd is just an example of this hatred that is rising. The more each side responds to the other only ensures that the violence will continue to escalate. It is by no means just the alt-right who has formed militias.

The left has also formed armed militias which promote violent class warfare so if you hate someone who has more than you, that’s OK – you are not a racist or fascist, just Marxist. The left are anti-rich and are Marxists seeking to as always confiscate the wealth and subjugate others (see Redneck Revolt). So they are fair, it does not matter your religion or race, if you have more than them you are evil. This view is preached by politicians all the time, yet is somehow just fine.

This stupid rhetoric has got to stop. I have been warning our model is forecasting tremendous civil unrest fostered by the economic downturn. The New York demonstrators keep accusing Trump of Fascism and Racism outside Trump Tower demanding all business leaders resign from working at all with the White House or they will boycott and threaten them with violence. And this will do something good for the country or New York?  The left are continuing to attribute the action of White Supremacists to Trump further dividing the nation.

The crazy left seem to have their minds filled with slogan propaganda for they clearly do not even remotely understand what Fascism actually is and this ban on Muslims from six countries is not racism since Muslim is a religion not a race. Trump has not argued against any race in this country and Mexicans are not a separate race either. It does not matter. You cannot engage in any reasonable discourse. CNN, which is becoming the greatest threat to civilization spreading discontent internationally, will never recant or show an honest debate of the entire subject. CNN is too busy making money and too greedy to see what they are doing is creating the foundation for civil war. CNNhas become an extremely dangerous propaganda machine abandoning impartial news broadcasting.

At Armstrong Economics we have ALL races on our staff and we HAVE Muslim employees that travel here to the States with no problem since they are not from the six countries on the terrorist list. So it is difficult to comprehend what exactly it is that the CNN followers are so angry about if it is not plainly that Hillary lost and they just hate rich people they define as anyone who has more than they do. These conflicting views and rhetoric of groups on the left are tearing the country apart. It is their demand that everyone resign from Trump’s advisory groups that only enrage the opposition. Such demands are outrageous and they seem to use any issue to try to just suspend government until the next Presidential election come 2020. Any issue is being used against Trump and that is just enraging more people further dividing the nation.

Jennifer Lawrence is at least addressing the middle ground but nobody seems to listen. Trust me, then you will see serious violence in the streets during 2020. I would not go near any city hosting the Democrats or Republicans in 2020. I will tell you now – stay far away.

Fascism is an authoritarian nationalism, that is characterized by dictatorial power, forced suppression of opposition, and control of industry and commerce. I do not understand how anyone can claim Trump is a fascist. CNN, of course, keeps trying so desperately to create civil unrest. They have come out and said with a headline “Alt-right? Don’t be afraid to call them fascists.” We simply have to stop these stupid labels. That is the first thing we have to do to try to restore some civility.

In London, we have the Telegraph coming out really against CNN with the headline: “Fascism is not Conservatism, and conservatives must make that clear.” I really question what is going on at CNN. It is not the reliable news source, it is becoming a hateful and vindictive network that is trying to create civil unrest. If Trump were truly a Fascist, he should send in troops and shut down CNN. That would be a good fascist move.

Let’s make no mistake here. The White Supremacist rally is taking place now because the standard of living has been diminishing with rising tax levels that reduce the disposable net income of people. That is the root cause of why such rallies take place now in opposition to the leftist rallies that erupted when Trump was elected setting cities on fire – not quite nonviolent. This is all building to a place we do not want to think about.

The White Supremacist movement in the South is also a long-standing resentment of blaming the blacks for their loss in the Civil War. Slave labor in the United States was first composed of whites – not blacks. They were criminals sold to plantation owners as indentured servants from British courts. The British legal system was so corrupt anyone for the slightest offense even stealing an apple was arrested and sold into Indentured servitude, all to profit the government destroying families. As Christopher Hibbert reported in his book, Roots of Evil (1963), the sentence imposed by the judge read:

“Because you have committed this offence, the sentence of the court is that you shall no longer be burdened with the support of your wife and family. You shall be immediately removed from a very bad climate and a country overburdened with people to one of the finest regions of the earth where demand for human labour is every hour increasing and where it is highly probable you may ultimately regain your character and improve your future.” (Roots of Evil, p145)

When the Revolution broke out, that supply of labor ended. It was being supplement by blacks being serviced by the Dutch from Africa. The Civil War did not begin as a racist issue, to those in the South it was a blow to them economically removing their workforce. The hatred arose post-Civil War as many blamed the blacks for the reason there was a war when the issue was really human rights regardless of their color. It was the religious right who rose up on the North against the Southern Democrats at that time. The issue split the Northern politics resulting in Abraham Lincoln becoming the first Republican President.  People will often blame others for their loss rather than accept responsibility themselves. This is why the racism took hold in America in contrast to Europe.

Jennifer Lawrence was against Trump, but she sees that this anger is festering. This is what concerns me that as the economy gets worse and governments keep raising taxes exploiting people reducing their standard of living, tensions will rise. This is manifesting in White Supremacists who have not risen up in mass since the 1960s and now we have armed leftist militia groups cheering class warfare. From the 1950 Maple Shade Township incident where Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. was confronted by a bartender who refused to serve him and his friends, it will be 72 years when we reach 2022. This trend will continue to rise and it is being driven by the deteriorating economic landscape under the surface.

VIX ?

 

  • N. Korea issue
  • tension btw India vs. China….It ain’t over till it is over!!!!!
  • Tax reform issue
  • Debt limit issue

 

These are potential time bombs for our share market next 30 days. If any one of it bursts, then we will have a big fire show. Trust me on this!

 

They are doing same things all over again.

좌우 가리지 않고 또라이짓들 계속 반복…..

아주 기대치가 제로이다.

막시즘이 판치는게 지금 한국의 현주소이다.

복지 복지….그래, 재원은 어디서?

전세계 역사적으로 부자들에 세금을 더먹여서 일반국민들의 세금을 낮추게한 역사가 없단다( 진짜로 찾아봐라!! 븅신들).결국은 정치인들 호주머니 채워주는짓들임.

 

또 하나, 한국을 좀 냉정히 생각해보면, 우상화가 아주 토착화된 곳이다. 괜히 김일성이 나온게 아니란 생각이든다. 왜 내가 이런 얘기를 하냐면, 우연히 뉴스보다 김연아 동상 얘기를 봤다. 그전에도 반총장 동상 etc etc……

맹목적인 박정희 대통령의 우상화를 비판하는 사람들이 노통 영화에 열광하는거는 어떤지? 난 다똑같다고 본다. 무능과 부패의 상징 한명숙을 싸고 도는건 또 뭔지????

좀 이성적으로 생각했으면….

 

정말 나라가 한단계 업그레이드 되고, 바로 잡을 수  있었던 황금같았던 기회를 박근혜가 정말 말아 먹었다고 본다. 하다못해 못난 딸이 자기 아버지(모두가 인정하는 공을 세운)의 명성까지도 먹칠했다고 본다.

한국은 적폐 적폐  이러고 놀고 있는데, 진짜 적폐가 누구인지 아니? 여야를 안가리고 정치인들이란다.

This time is different!

북한 상황은 이번주말을 기점으로 악화될거로…….9월중반까지 손에 땀을 쥐는일이 일어날지도…..

난 항상 중동을 #1으로 봐왔고, 지금도 내생각은 그러하나……  이거 북한이 correction의 시발점이 될줄은 정말 몰랐다.

이거 웃어야되나 울어야되나??

Remember, this will be a correction!!!!!

However, Big correction!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Plus, I kind of like Mr. Trump’s choice of words……..I really do. hahahaha

What If The VIX Goes Bananas?

From Chris Metli of Morgan Stanley

It’s easy to become numb to the low volatility environment and the risks it presents.  While trying to pick a trough in vol has been a fool’s errand, focusing on the risks resulting from vol being so low is not.  Low volatility has produced a regime where the risks are asymmetric and negatively convex, so being prepared for an unwind is critical.  This is not a call that vol is about to spike, but you need a plan if it does.

This note details how a short vol unwind might develop. A violent rise in volatility could be driven by just a 3% to 4% one-day S&P 500 selloff.  Right now the risk is greatest in the VIX complex, and demand for VIX futures from three main sources could result in 100,000 contracts ($100mm vega) to buy in a down 3.5% SPX move.  For context VIX futures ADV over the last year is 230,000 (although has risen to as high as 700,000 in big selloffs).

ms vix1.jpgms vix2.jpg

It’s important to note that this only happens if there is a large 1-day move lower in equities starting when VIX is very low – a slower drawdown, or a selloff from higher starting levels of vol, would not create as much demand.  The biggest S&P 500 selloff when VIX was less than 12 was 3.5% (Feb 2007), so this type of move would be on par with the worst-case historical move for a low vol environment.

Why highlight this now?  Simply because as volatility goes lower, these risks rise.   In April and May QDS acknowledged that the short vol base was large, but viewed the risk as manageable (‘Keep Calm and Carry On’).  In June the team’s stance on volatility turned neutral.  And since then volatility levels have only gone lower.

What happens if the S&P 500 were to fall 3.5% today?

1) First, the VIX could rise as much as 12 points.  When volatility is low it tends to move a lot for a given change in the S&P 500.  That effect is likely to be exacerbated now because a) skew is steep (and VIX rolls up the skew in a selloff) and b) many players in the VIX market are short.  Taking these dynamics into account QDS estimates VIX could rise ~12 points for a 3.5% 1-day decline in SPX.

If VIX rises 12 points, 1-month VIX futures are likely up 5.5 points, a ~50% increase.  The 1-day percentage change is a big deal in the VIX complex because the levered and inverse VIX ETFs and ETNs rebalance daily based on the percentage change, and some of the thresholds for forced unwinds are based on the percentage change.  This is why lower vol creates higher risk.

ms vix3.jpg

2) In a 50% increase in VIX futures, the levered and inverse VIX ETFs and ETNs need to buy ~70,000 VIX futures to rebalance their portfolios and maintain target exposures (this estimate is net of redemptions – long vol ETPs are generally sold by their holders as vol rises, offsetting the levered rebalance).  While these flows likely occur near the close, the dynamic is well known, and many traders will bring forward those flows to the middle of the day.

ms vix4.jpg

ms vix5.jpg

3) A VIX futures level in the high teens (up from 11 – 12 now) means dealers get short VIX call gamma.  There has been considerable buying of VIX calls and call spreads, with much of the hedging flow in the last month focused on VIX (instead of SPX).  As VIX futures rise, dealers will get more and more short delta, which needs to be hedged by buying VIX futures.  In a 3.5% SPX selloff QDS estimates there could be 25,000 VIX futures to buy from dealers hedging.

ms vix6.jpg

4) If VIX futures approach +100% in a single day, there is a risk that the providers of inverse VIX ETPs cover the VIX futures that they sold to hedge the products.  This is because there is a mismatch in the hedge if VIX futures rise more than 100% – the inverse ETPs can’t go below zero (-100%) but the loss on a short VIX futures position can be more than -100%.

ms vix7.jpg

There are two inverse ETPs that sell the front of the VIX futures curve – XIV (an ETN) and SVXY (an ETF).  For XIV (holding ~73,000 contracts short) the prospectus indicates that it will unwind if the NAV falls more than 80% intraday, with investors receiving the end of day value.  Given this is a known threshold, anything close to a +80% move in VIX futures would likely trigger buying (by the ETN provider and/or market participants) in anticipation of the unwind.  Note that because XIV is an ETN, investors receive the theoretical value of the index based on its rules, not what the provider actually trades.

SVXY (holding ~37,000 contracts short) does not have a set threshold to unwind according to its prospectus.  That said VIX futures currently have a margin requirement of ~45% of notional for the average of the front two contracts, and any decline in value of the inverse ETPs to those levels could trigger a rapid forced unwind.   Note that SVXY is an ETF, so the NAV is based on the actual holdings of the fund at the end of the day.

ms vix8.jpg

ms vix9.jpg

5)  The 2nd derivative impacts are likely large.  An overnight gap higher that doesn’t give investors the opportunity to hedge is the worst case.  Consider if there is an overnight gap in VIX futures of +150% (VIX futures to ~29, VIX to 35+):

  • The holders of the inverse ETPs lose the $1.4bn as the AUM of inverse ETPs goes to zero.
  • The providers (hedge counterparties / clearers) of the ETPs lose $600mm due to the mismatched hedge if VIX futures more than double.
  • Investors that sold long vol ETPs against short vol ETPs (a somewhat common carry trade) have the same unhedged gap risk in a +100% VIX futures move as the ETP providers.  Assuming they are 20% of the shorts in the inverse ETPs (a guess) – they lose $250mm.
  • Dealers who can’t hedge their delta on the way up could lose $500mm on our estimates.
  • Hedge funds who are short VIX futures ($250mm vega on just the short leg per CFTC) playing the rolldown trade lose over $4bn.
  • Investors who are wrong way in VXX, SVXY, and UVXY options could lose hundreds of millions – estimating loss here is hard, but assuming 20% of the open interest is wrong way, the loss would be ~$1bn.
  • Investors who have sold vol in other forms (options, variance, etc.) would take losses and likely look to cover as well.

With a buyer for every seller someone is making this money too, and some of the above could be hedged as well.  But the point is that when there are losses, ‘sell what you can’ will take over and drive further supply.  While the point of max pain in volatility would likely be the first day of the spike, the knock on effects could mean equity markets take longer to recover.

ms vix10.jpg

6)   Adding to the pain – on days after the initial shock – would be the flow from annuity and risk parity deleveraging.  Both of those investors are slow by comparison to the VIX market – annuities will sell over several days, starting the day after a selloff.  Risk parity funds are more discretionary, and the supply could come over a matter of weeks.  But given high leverage resulting from the low vol environment, their potential supply is large and could prolong any downturn.ms vix11.jpg

ms vix12.jpg

Investors have been crying wolf about the VIX complex for years, and have been wrong so far.  And it’s important to note that the odds are still heavily stacked against the above scenario playing out and the most likely scenario is still a graceful unwind of the short vol trade:

  • If volatility is just a little bit higher, the unwind potential is much less – there needs to be a shock when volatility starts at these very low levels
  • The unwind in VIX only happens in a 1-day gap lower in stocks – a slow bleed would not create as much supply
  • History suggests a gap from low vol levels is unlikely:  the biggest selloff in S&P 500 when VIX was less than 12 was -3.5%, and -2.2% when VIX was less than 11, not enough to trigger this type of unwind.  That -2.2% selloff occurred on Feb 4th 1994 when the Fed raised interest rates – bond volatility remains the major risk factor.
  • Investors are still not all-in on stocks, with exposures moderate and many hiding out in defensives and Tech – raising the bar for a big selloff in stocks
  • Active manager performance this year has been strong, meaning funds are less likely to become forced sellers of positions, which helps keeps volatility tame and can limit the speed of a selloff
  • Correlation remains low due to both fundamentals and positioning, and for the index to sell off sharply it would need to rise

The point is simply that if there is an external market shock that nobody is prepared for (and this likely coincides with a selloff across asset classes), the risks of a quick unwind are higher than in the past.  QDS favors staying long equities, but does not view the risk / reward on simply selling volatility as attractive anymore.  Instead consider:

  • Replacing long stock with S&P 500 upside calls that look very cheap given low volatility – buy the SPX Dec 2550 call (30^) for ~1% (sub-9% implied vol)
  • Buying VIX puts instead of selling VIX futures to collect rolldown – buy the VIX Sept 10.5 put for $0.25, which offers attractive leverage if futures roll down to current spot levels of VIX with a 9 handle.
  • Hedging this potential tail event with OTM VIX calls – buy the Sept 20 calls (17^) for $0.45.  VIX calls are not cheap by any measure, but they are reasonably priced given these potential risks, and for those that see a shock occurring in the next few months VIX calls are the best hedge.

The last of us II

“I am gonna find & kill every last one of them”

R U enjoying HDR?????

12-bit panel will be the future …….we need enough color gamut to have perfect HDR!


 

Resolution, bit depth, compression, bit rate. These are just few of the countless parameters our cameras and files have. Let’s talk about bit depth here. There’s a lot of good talk about 10 bit and a lot of bad talk about 8 bit. The computer can tell the difference, but can you?

What Is Bit Depth?

Bit depth determines the number of colors that can be stored for an image whether it’s a still picture or a frame from a video footage. Each image is composed of the basic red, green, and blue channels. Each channel can display a variety of shades of the appropriate color. The number of shades determines the bit depth of the image. A 1-bit depth image means there are only two color shades per color channel. For a 3-bit depth image there are two to the power of three shades, or a total of eight shades per channel. An 8-bit image means there are two to the power of eight shades for red, green, and blue. This is 256 different values per channel. When combining those channels we can have 256 x 256 x 256 different color combinations, or roughly 16 million. A 10-bit image can display 1,024 shades of color per channel, or billions of color combinations.

Don’t get confused with the 24-bit color. A color is represented by these three basic channels (excluding the alpha channel as we just talk about color, not transparency). The color bit depth is the sum of the bit depths of each channel. A 24-bit color means each color channel can have 8-bits of information.

Bit depth gradients

What’s the Bit Depth of Most Media Devices?

The majority of displays on the market are displaying images with 8-bit depth, whether these are desktop monitors, laptop screens, mobile device screens, or media projectors. There are 10-bit monitors too but not many of us have those. If you are curious: the human eye can recognize about 10 million colors.

What’s the Point of Using 10-Bit Images?

As we see, neither our eyes, nor most of our displays can show us the glory of the 10-bit images. What’s the point of having so much data we can’t see? For displaying there’s no use at all. Even if the devices can interpret that vast amount of data, our eyes won’t tell the difference. The only advantage is when processing that data. If you have an 8-bit image and you want to stretch the saturation or contrast more evenly for some reason, the processing software may not have enough data and “tear” parts of the histogram. As a result blank bars of missing data are formed. If there is more dense data to work with, expanding the range would not cause such gaps.Banding visible on histogram

As a result we have the so called “banding” where on the right it is the original gradient and on the left is the “stretched” color spectrum:

Banding

This is the reason why it’s so important to be more precise when shooting 8-bit images (like JPEG) or 8-bit video (like most of the DSLRs do). Being more precise usually won’t call for heavy post-processing. At the end you will have a quality result. If heavy processing is required this is where the 10 or more bits per channel show their advantage. When stretching the values of the pixels the software will have lots of data to work with and thus produce a smoother result of high quality.

Working with 8-bit still images or 8-bit video footage is not bad unless you plan to do a vast amount of color or contrast changes. Being a precise shooter is always paying off, but there are times when you might need higher bit depth (or “deeper bit depth”) files.

Conclusion

Raw still images are files of 12, 14, or 16-bit depth. Now you know why you can change the white balance or work with saturation, vibrance, and contrast without degrading the quality than applying changes over 8-bit JPEG files. It is the same for video. Most of your DSLR video is 8-bits per channel and you have to make your picture as best as possible in-camera, otherwise post-processing may lower the quality of your final product.

End of corruption……….new trend since 2016.   근데, 그놈이 그놈이야라는 결론. 조금 덜 때묻은 변화를 줄 수 있는 사람이어야한다….뭐 이정도?

 

6/29

근데 한국의 상황은 새정부가 별반 다르지 않다는게 함정.

문정부의 인사를 보니 완죤 개판이더라.

자격이 없는 사람들이 날뛴다는 느낌.

아니 개혁이라도 자격 시험을 통과한 사람중 제대로 된사람을 골라내야지, 이게 뭔 개판? 그럴려면, 외무고시/사법시험/ 행정고시 다 없애던지……. 교수에 대한 환상은 한국인들에게 아직도 영원한듯………교수의 태반이 다 입만 살아서 나대는 허상가들이 많다는거 모르나?

experience that counts!!!    로스쿨교수들 자체도 황당….미국서 법대교수 99%가 license 가졌던 사람이란거는 왜인지 모르나?

외교 장관은 외교관중 제대로 정신박힌 사람이어야하고, 법무부 장관은 law practice를 했던 사람중 정신이 재대로 박힌 사람이어야하고…기타등등…….개중에 제대로 된사람이 왜없니?

에이고 난 포기했다…..홍위병같은 언론들의 개소리에 훅하는 민생들이 불쌍하다. 또 뒤통수 맞을텐데….쯔쯔

‘politicians are always involved with his/her self-interest. In other words, they are all same !!’ 이라는 진리는 변하지 않네.

원칙없는 인사도 개판,  왜 좌익이 뒤통수인지 아주 철저히 보여주는 지금 상황.  사람들이 좀 정신차리길…..

그렇다고 내가 태극기 모임등의 우파들을 짝퉁 우파라고 하는 이유는….문통의 인사 개판, 공무원 늘리는 자살골, 복지 늘리는 자살골, 북한에 퍼주기……..이런거를 얘기하다가 갑자기 끝에 그러니 박그네는 무죄. 이러니 내가 짝퉁우파라는거다.

우파도 짝퉁이 있고, 진정한 우파가 있단다.

박그네는 미친거 맞다. 감옥에 썩어야하는것도 맞다.  난 지금의 좌파 득세는 박그네의 꼴통짓이 만들어낸걸로 본다.

진정한 원리원칙의 우파들은 한국에 없나????

 

Metallic Dream

“Politician is not interested in you. Politician is interested in winning next election. Regardless of form, politicians are always involved with his/her self-interest. In other words, they are all same !!”


  • Wizard of OZ 가 사실은 그당시 정치와 사회를 풍자한 소설이란거 아는지? 예를 들자면, 심장이 없는 사자는 그당시 politician who has no heart to stand up…….etc

  • Plato’s republic

Socrates said, “our democracy … people  always vote correctly!!”

 His opponent Marcus stood up & said “all governments are same, it does not matter, they all pass laws in their own self-interest. Justice is always the same. It is only the self-interest of the stronger”

Marcus’ analysis is that all governments (it didn’t matter if it was what kind it was…aristocratic, democratic, dictatorship for whatever….) It was always same. They are there to survive. They will do what it takes to survive and basically justice is always the same thing only for their self-interest. 


They will…

View original post 166 more words

Collapse in Socialism

Collapse in Socialism is happening worldwide except Korea.

MA clearly points out this:

“Raising taxes on the rich has NEVER lowered anyone else’s taxes or improved the life of the poor even once.”

Wake the fuck up, my dear!!!

 

VIX forecast fed_0.jpg

I am repeatedly telling you that 2017 is OK.  Correction is fine in 2017!!!!

But, VIX can hit 70?     come on……..it’s not even 11 right now.

Be realistic!!!